FAQ: the next video game consoles?

By David Becker on 18 April 2005, 7:17pm

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The Olympics happen every four years, and old video game consoles get chucked every five years.

This means that the game industry is due for a shake-up any day now. The current crop of consoles -- Sony's PlayStation 2, Microsoft's Xbox and Nintendo's GameCube -- have all been on the market for about four years.

Each manufacturer wants to squeeze as much market life as possible out of the current machines, so they won't divulge too many details of future consoles for fear of making their current ones look outdated. But information on next-generation plans has slowly accumulated, supplemented by a steady stream of rumours that range from outlandish to vaguely plausible.

Manufacturers are being tight-lipped about future game consoles for fear of supplanting their current ones, but that hasn't stopped CNET News.com from digging up details on price, capabilities and more.

What's it going to be called?

Sony -- For a while, Sony wouldn't even confirm that there would be another version of the PlayStation at all. But lately, even Sony executives are comfortable uttering the words 'PlayStation 3'.

Microsoft -- The next Xbox is code-named 'Xenon'. What it will be called when it hits the shops is the subject of rampant speculation, with Microsoft reportedly wanting to avoid the obvious Xbox 2 because that would be one less than PlayStation 3. Favourite names in the rumour mill include Xbox Next, Xbox 360 and Xbox HD. Microsoft has registered domains for xboxnext.com and xbox2.com; xbox360.com belongs to British squatters. For simplicity's sake, we'll stick with Xbox 2 until Microsoft offers something more definitive.

Nintendo -- The company traditionally comes up with an entirely new name for each console. The GameCube's successor is going by the code name 'Revolution'. There's a chance Nintendo will keep the name for the final product, but the company hasn't bothered to register the Web domain.

When can I get one?

Sony -- Sony has promised to have a prototype version of a PS3 to show off at the Electronic Entertainment Expo (E3) trade show in LA in May. Consensus among analysts is that consoles won't arrive in the shops until early 2006, at best.

Microsoft -- It will also be showing off the goods at E3 -- several days after it provides a first public glimpse of the new Xbox in an MTV broadcast on 12 May. Game makers are already hard at work with Xbox 2 development kits, so consoles could be in the shops in time for this year's holiday season.

Nintendo -- Revolution will complete the three-ring console circus at E3. Nintendo executives have said they don't plan to repeat their experience from the current console cycle; the PlayStation 2 beat the GameCube to the marketplace by almost a year. But no game publishers have reported receiving Revolution development kits, meaning that Nintendo will have to move quickly just to keep pace with Microsoft.

What will it cost?

Sony -- Consoles have entered the market at £300 for the last few hardware cycles, but some analysts think that game companies will push the bar with this generation. Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter predicted in a report last year that the PS3 could come with a price tag as high as $500 in the US, (we at CNET think no more than £350 in the UK) if Sony thinks it can cram in enough multimedia functions to justify the price.

Microsoft -- Ditto for the Xbox 2, but Piper Jaffray analyst Tony Gikas predicts that Microsoft will aim for a more modest price rise, to $350 or $400 in the US. We reckon it will retail at about £350 in the UK.

Nintendo -- Dramatic price cuts on the GameCube, appealing to the budget crowd, have helped keep Nintendo in the game for the last few years. Nintendo is unlikely to push the $300 barrier in the US with Revolution. Over here we think it won't be more than £250.

What processor will it use?

Sony -- Sony is promising a brave new world of computing with the multicore Cell processor, a joint project with IBM and Toshiba. The Cell will have nine independent processing units that can divide up complex computing tasks or loan processing power to other systems. The initial version of the chip -- the one likely to run the PlayStation 3 -- will run faster than 4GHz, be capable of 256 billion calculations per second and have built-in security systems to prevent the illegal copying of games and other content.

Microsoft -- Unlike the current Xbox, which uses a standard Pentium PC processor from Intel, the software giant has hired IBM to design a custom Xbox 2 processor based on Big Blue's Power architecture. Microsoft says the chip will be capable of processing more than a trillion calculations per second (1 teraflop), putting it on a par with high-end servers.

Nintendo -- The console maker hasn't revealed any specifics about the Revolution processor -- or much else, for that matter -- except to confirm that IBM is building it and its code name is 'Broadway'.

What about storage, graphics, memory and so on?

Sony -- Nvidia will design the graphics processor for the PlayStation 3. Sony hasn't said anything about storage, but it would be hard for the PS3 to accomplish its publicised multimedia functions without something more capable than the current 8MB memory cards -- the leading candidate would be Sony's Memory Stick cards. Sony has also confirmed that the PS3 will use its Blu-ray technology for high-capacity DVDs.

Microsoft -- After a somewhat difficult experience with Nvidia on the current Xbox, Microsoft is going with rival ATI Technologies to create the graphics chip for Xbox 2.

The storage picture for Xbox 2 is less clear. Flash memory partner M-Systems has indicated that the 8GB hard drive in the current Xbox will be replaced with high-capacity removable storage, but more recent signs point to the possibility of two Xbox models, one with a hard drive and one without. A recent Microsoft survey also suggests that the Xbox 2 may come with built-in support for wireless networking.

Nintendo -- ATI signed a 'technology development agreement' with Nintendo two years ago that appears to cover the Revolution graphics chip. Besides that, the evidence gets pretty slim. Previous consoles from piracy-sensitive Nintendo have all introduced proprietary new media formats, so support for current or upcoming DVD formats is unlikely.

Recent Nintendo patent applications hint at ideas that could actually live up to the Revolution name, such as a digital-camera controller, a sunlight-monitoring system and numerous advances in virtual golf.