Crave Talk: Can anything save HD DVD?
HD DVD is almost certainly dead in the water. The surprise move of Warner to move to exclusive Blu-ray support has sunk any hope the HD DVD group ever had for winning the format war. What's more, there are rumours that the last two HD DVD studios -- Paramount and Universal -- are both planning a similar defection. So, can anything save the format now?
It seems pretty unlikely. If Universal and Paramount stay exclusive to HD DVD, however, it's possible the format could survive in the short term. Of course, the moment one or other of those companies leave, the war would certainly be over. Sony has proved many times that no matter how deep your pockets are, you can't win a format war when you're the only company behind it.
The other option is that either Toshiba or Microsoft could buy one of the remaining major film studios. Microsoft certainly has the cash for this, but the problem is finding one that would be for sale or is affordable. Time Warner is less profitable than Microsoft, so that would be the obvious choice. Fox is out because Murdoch is richer than God and allegedly lends money to Satan when he's short of a few quid. The only other option would be Disney, which is now part-owned by Steve Jobs, so it's unlikely to sell to Microsoft.
There's a very slim chance that the rapidly decreasing cost of HD DVD could lure consumers to buy equipment. Especially if they aren't aware that they will only be able to buy HD DVDs from two movie studios. In the US, certain players are retailing at around $130 (£65) with free HD DVDs via redemption. This makes them decent value even if you only use them as upscaling DVD players.
Of course, all of the above assumes that the rest of the world follows the US in HD matters. That is probably true, but there are plenty of independent, adult and European studios that support HD DVD at the moment. If Europe decided to ignore Blu-ray -- unlikely, based on PS3 sales -- then perhaps US distributors would be forced to release on HD DVD for Europe.
The only other option is that one of the Blu-ray exclusive producers decides for some reason -- possibly another payment -- that HD DVD is where their future lies. This is almost totally impossible, as Sony Pictures will obviously never leave and Disney and Fox care too much about preventing piracy to ever surrender the BD+ copy-protection scheme -- which, it's worth pointing out, doesn't seem to be stopping piracy.
However you look at it, the chances are pretty slim that HD DVD has much of a chance. Despite being a good, well designed and cheap HD format, it seems the Blu-ray disc association has the right combination of factors to attract the consumer. -Ian Morris
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Steven JonesThu 17 January, 2008 12:08pm
As a HD-DVD owner myself I'll be happy to see new discs coming out for a while, and the upscalling is rather good on my £200 (Plus 7 free films) A30 so I don't feel I've lost out too much. I still fully believe Blu-Ray will win in the end, however we will never truely know which format the consumer would have prefered dur to the PS3 factor.
The inclusion on BluRay in the PS3 means that neither side truely knows what's going on out there. I'm pretty sure that the majority of people buying a PS3 will pick up a couple of films with it to have a look at it's quality, however we will never know how many of these devices are actually going to be setup as the homes main entertainment system, and how many will end up in bedrooms mainly playing games, with only occasional film usage for a single viewer.
It was an excellent marketing move by Sony, however in annoys me too, not truely knowing how the market place stands. Would have been most interesting if all the studios had been 'purple' until a clear choice was made in the market place, but that was never going to happen with Sony's pre-war positioning.
In the end, I feel it's Studios 1 Consumer 0.
Count StexThu 17 January, 2008 12:27pm
As a HD-DVD owner I'm hoping the remaining studios will stick around and continue to bring out some excellent discs in 2008. Anyone who's watched 300 in commentary mode with the BlueScreen PiP session will know that HD-DVD can deliver the goods.
However, long term, it is pretty clear BluRay will now dominate. It is unfortunate however that Sony placed it's player into the PS3s. This has forever muddied the waters such that neither side fully knows what's going on out there! I'm pretty sure that anyone buying a PS3 will pick up a few films to go with it, as Christmas sales figures have made clear. However we will never know how many of these machines will become a home's main entertainment system, and how many will end up in bedrooms being mainly used for game play with only occasional solo viewer usage. I'm pretty sure HD players will still be in use even when the PS3 has become 'Last-Gen' so it really does complicate matters.
In an ideal world all the studios would have gone 'purple' until the market had made a clear choice, however this was never going to happen with Sony's pre-war positioning.
Overall I feel it's Studios 1 Consumer 0
AnonymousThu 17 January, 2008 2:01pm
Actually I believe HD DVD may still have a future providing the backers stay. Toshiba has just slashed its prices by half, making buying a HD DVD really cheap. With Blu Ray thinking that HD DVD is out of the game, there will be no incentive to reduce their pricing policies, which is to market Blu Ray as a premium product. HD DVD's big jump could be when dual format machine become more popular, as studio's may switch back to the cheaper format and hence greater profits. The big danger for both formats is HD downloads, especially as Apple has just launched a download service.
AnonymousThu 17 January, 2008 4:25pm
Who would be crazy enough to invest in a format that is going to be discontinued in a few months?
It's a shame that many consumers were already tricked into buying HD-DVD products the first time around here in N. America. Toshiba's $99 Fire-Sale was a crime. The people of the USA were, simply, swindled by Toshiba & Microsoft. Thankfully, the rest of the globe didn't fall for the same marketing propaganda that Toshiba and Microsoft were allowed to propetuate.
I don't know of anyone that would fall for the same trick twice.
AnonymousThu 17 January, 2008 5:00pm
What are you talking about?! $99 HD DVD players a crime? A $99 HD DVD is a bargain when you look at it as an upscaling DVD player with benefits. Only a Blu Ray fanboy could see it as anything else! Now stop spouting your fanboy rubbish...
CartmanThu 17 January, 2008 5:17pm
When I go to rent movies most of the films I want to see are on HD-DVD rather than blu-ray still so although it sounds like Blu-ray has all the movies it's not reflected in the selection of movies available at the moment.
I think counting PS3 sales as Blu-ray player sales is madness. It's like counting Channel 5 viewers based on the number of TVs sold. Most people don't buy PS3s for watching blu-ray - they buy it for playing games. Blu-Ray does seem to be the inferior format but looks like they may win this. I say may because if HD-DVD continues to be cheaper and holds out a bit longer then studios that are currently exclusive may start to offer both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD movies. There is no way that Sony can have paid a movie studio enough to miss out on sales to a large audience if HD-DVD players are just as common place in 6months time (which is likely if they cost 1/3rd of the price of blu-ray).
AnonymousFri 18 January, 2008 1:32am
I look forward to the end of the format war - Blu-ray is the better choice for computer use.
The data rates and storage listed below can be easily verified by an internet search - check the data rates out as published by the manufacturers and search for the available media for sale and it all checks out.
DATA TRANSFER RATES:
Blu-Ray media available now: 4x (144 Mbps)
HD-DVD media available now: 1x (36 Mbps)
Blu-Ray speed potential 12x (432 Mbps)
HD-DVD speed potential 8x (288 Mbps)
Note: base speed rating 1x is 36 Mbps for the HD-DVD/Blu-Ray media compared to 1x rating of 11 Mbps for DVD media.
AUDIO/VIDEO TRANSFER RATES:
Blu-Ray: 54.0 Mbps
HD-DVD: 36.55 Mbps
STORAGE CAPACITY:
Blu-Ray Single Layer: 25 GB
HD-DVD Single Layer: 15 GB
Blu-Ray Dual Layer: 50 GB
HD-DVD Dual Layer: 30 GB
AnonymousFri 18 January, 2008 3:59pm
I am a supporter of Blu-Ray. I bought 2 Sony HDTV in 2005 at almost half price because one had component input and the other one component+DVI-D. They were cheap because the new ones
have HDMI. I could not find any DVD player on the market that pumps out 1080i for the component
input. All the upconverted DVD player sends their output through HDMI, and I have a cable that
converts HDMI to DVI-D, but it does not fool the player because my TV does not have HDCP so
the player still sends out 480p. I had to return all the newer DVD players I bought since they
don't do any better than 480p.
For Christmas I got the Toshiba HD-A3 for $150 US + 10 movies.
It is the only one that provides 1080i from HD DVD disc or upconverts regular DVD to my TV.
This is the first time I can see HD on my TV. It is glorious.
Now that Blu Ray wins, the price is even cheaper for a HD DVD player. This is great news.
I will never buy a Blu Ray player because it does not send out HD output on component, so
I still get 480p with a Blu-Ray. I am waiting for the next gen HD beyond Blu-Ray.
AnonymousSun 20 January, 2008 8:00pm
Blu-ray all the way, I brought 4 blu-ray discs the other day and they are fantastic, but my friend has a hd-dvd player (traitor!) and has 3 discs, but amazingly, 2 of his discs have already broken, 1. he put his fnger on the bottom layer and ruined the disc, and his second disc broke inside the hd-dvd player, at the same time breaking the hd-dvd player at the same time, amazingly, he has moved to blu-ray and has had no problems, what a surprise
AnonymousMon 21 January, 2008 8:53am
To the idiot with the friend that broke his 2 HD DVD discs. You're an idiot.
AnonymousMon 21 January, 2008 1:06pm
HD-DVD not dead yet. Next few months will be interesting. High def for the masses only takes when players are £100 or less.
Toshiba & co finally actioned what they should have done months ago - go for the pricing jugular.. Sony can't discount ps3 too much - they already probably only breakeven on the console and make money on the cheap (lol) games..
Lord of the Rings on HD-DVD - that would make things interesting....
AnonymousTue 22 January, 2008 10:38am
I bought HD-DVD after the anouncement.
Simple reason, they have very good reports as upscalers, deduct the free movies and no upscaling DVD player can compare for price.
The fact that it plays HD-DVDs is a bonus.
To rent the HD-DVDs is the same price as DVDs.
Sony have a long track record of faiuled formats. They have all been technicaly good, but their policies kill them (ie sony seem to think they own copyright on your own voice if you record it on MD).
Maybe bluray will eventually take over, but with Sony's past, I would rather wait and see. Meanwhile I will get a lot of enjoyment out of HD-DVD, and of course be adding to the numbers that are using it.
CartmanTue 22 January, 2008 10:54am
Betamax, MiniDisc, UMD... nuff said
AnonymousTue 22 January, 2008 5:43pm
I think Toshiba could still get HD-DVD into homes. Dropping the price of the cheaper models is a very astute move.
I know many people who stumped up for an LCD screen this Xmas. They know look very confused out getting their DVD connected in "high def". They need, and are, upgrading to an upscaling DVD player. They look bumused when they can't get 5.1 from SCART!!
Given the choice of a £70 upscaler and a £100 upscaler (the HD-DVD machine) with 5 free disks is quite compelling. Only today a guy at work told me he was about to buy a Samsung 1080P7 (of whatever) but decided to get the EC30 with free disks. This was for his parents who have just bought an LCD.
He says "they will get HDMI, great upscaling and then if they get keen, get Planet Earth in HD". A no brainer. If they never use the HD, who cares?
I think pitching the HD-DVD machines as "great DVD upscalers" that can also play HD-DVD for those "jaw dropping" demos to the neighbours is a great ploy. Add the fact that 5 free disks makes the machine appear virtually free, it really is a no brainer.
My house will have a PS3 and a HD-DVD drive, PS3 for games and the films I can't get on HD-DVD and HD-DVD for the rest.
The impression where I work is that no one would buy a Blu-ray player, "unlike HD-DVD, they aren't finished yet" and "I could get left with a 1.0, 1.1 doorstop" and the PS3 is the only machine Sony won't abandon.
Let's face it they are partially right, HD-DVD is a far more polished (and finished) product which Blu-ray is still playing catch-up with. Who cares about enormous bandwidth scores or 50GB disk space, just enough is enough in this game and cheap duplication and players at £99 is what will count.
Interersting times ahead. Maybe when a few million people upgrade to a nice new "upscaler" with "HD-DVD" written on the front could stimulate consumer demand for movies on HD-DVD and will get film companies to change their minds...again!
AnonymousTue 29 January, 2008 9:33am
Any person who buys the inferior 'dead' HD DVD format must be mad, its over get used to it.
Most people I know are buying blu-ray players and returning HD DVD players for a refund.
HD DVD is dead.
AnonymousTue 29 January, 2008 4:41pm
When a format (blu ray) that has more DRM, regional encoding, and self-executing exe's embedded in them wins , we all lose.
Hd dvd is best for the consument.Why pay much more for the blu.Dont get fooled people .In the UK hd dvd players are topsellers now .
AnonymousThu 31 January, 2008 11:40pm
HD-DVD is not inferior. Period. Interactivity with Internet, latest codecs, overlay menus, pic-in-pic extras. Blu-ray is unfinished, V1.0 is no better than DVD in every interactive measure. V1.1 makes it just as good (but no better) than HD-DVD is already
Nobody in their right mind would buy a Blu-ray machine that was not a fully compliant 1.1 machine. Are there any apart from the PS3? Panasonic don't have theirs out in the UK yet and it will be nearly £400 for the entry (only) model!
AnonymousMon 18 February, 2008 12:29pm
Does anyone have an HD DVD player?
I am working on the bbc's 6 o'clock news and i need to do some filming with it. Can you help?
Are you an owner who is irritated by the decision to move towards Blu Ray?
Give me a call on 0208 624 9996 - jonathan sumberg
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AnonymousThu 17 January, 2008 10:24am
BluRay if far more dominant than HD-DVD outside the US than in it. I live in the UK and I believe less than 20k HD-DVD players have been sold here since launch compared to about 750k PS3's.